Don’t expect huge PC comeback in 2002: Deloitte Consulting

Remember when your favourite team lost in the championship game and your dad, in an attempt to console you, said: “Wait until next year”?

This has been the mantra for PC industry this year, but they could be in for the same sort of heartache sports fans are used to. According to Deloitte Consulting, the technology and communications practice of Deloitte & Touche, all indicators point to a lackluster comeback in 2002 for the PC industry.

Now, several of the top PC makers believed that 2002 was going to be a comeback year for the PC because all those PC purchased before the year 2000 (remember the Y2K scare?) would be ending its lifecycle. Michael Dell of Dell Computer went on record saying he was counting on this upswing in the PC market.

The Gross Margin Index from the D&T report found an increase just below one per cent this quarter, showing a slightly more stable market for PC manufacturers than in the last few quarters. Stable for PC vendors, however, is similar to a four letter word. What every vendor and reseller is looking for next year is growth. But is stable all that bad?

If you think about it 95 per cent of the population enjoy a stable environment, a stable career, stable relationships, stable gas prices, stable everything. What is wrong with stable? Would PC vendors rather see huge losses instead?

Stable is not exciting and that is the problem. Y2K was exciting. The Internet was exciting. E-commerce was exciting. Businesses purchased more PCs because of it. What is out there that is exciting that will force business to buy a tonne of PC?

Wireless devices are exciting and businesses are investing in that technology, but until sparks start to fly in the PC market expect 2003 to be the same as this year and next year.

Lets hear it for stable!

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Jim Love, Chief Content Officer, IT World Canada

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