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A dose of predictive analytics could be part of the prescription to stop a deadly bacterium in its tracks, according to a staff member at a Burlington, Ont.-based hospital.

Joseph Brant Memorial Hospital recently experienced an outbreak of C. difficile, a common hospital bacterium that has become more deadly in recent years. The report has ramifications for hospitals province-wide.

The hospital released the results of a mortality review conducted by the Infection Control Unit of Toronto's University Health Network on May 7. It revealed the outbreak was worse than previously thought.

From May 1, 2006 to Dec. 31, 2007, 91 patients diagnosed with the infection died while in hospital, with the bacteria contributing to 76 of those deaths.  Ontario health minister George Smitherman reacted to the release by announcing that all Ontario hospitals will have to report cases of C. difficile to the province.

The lessons learned by Joseph Brant staff as a result of their outbreak are valuable to share with other hospitals that are now required to track the deadly bacteria. Staff in the decision support department has considered how the use of powerful predictive analytics software from Cary, N.C.-based SAS Institute Inc. could help frontline workers.

The software would complement existing tracking methods, not replace them, explains Mark Morreale, manager of decision support at the hospital.

The hospital recently adopted SAS software in a pilot program to measure other important indicators such as the Hospital Standardized Mortality Rate (HSMR), he says. The software combined data from across several different systems to allow for a close analytical look. 

“What's great about SAS is that we're able to an in-depth analysis at the patient level,” Morreale says. “We're able to calculate the amount of risk associated with a patient and report that to a nurse.”

Currently, the hospital tracks infection control information by using pencil-on-paper line sheets and Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, according to Barb Shea, the manager of infection prevention and control services. The number of patient days and incidents of infection are tracked and passed on to regional networks comparing the rates across multiple hospitals.

“Many of these statistical pool gathering software programs are being looked at also,” she adds. But the infection control team at Joseph Brant has not yet seriously considered such an option.

Collecting data about infections is laborious by nature, Shea says. A trained health care worker must go to the bedside and make a thorough assessment of the patient.

SAS software could help automate the tracking process, Morreale says. Nurses could link their lab reports directly to infection control information about C. difficile. This will boost “the ability to do rounds and their tracing ability as well.”

Joseph Brant staff has invested in improved infection control methods since the outbreak, according to their report. Improved reporting and treatment methods and better housekeeping has helped reduce the incidence of the infections, and no new cases of the bacteria have been reported since April 15.

Still, the report advises that hospitals should expect the harmful strain of bacteria will strike again and a plan is needed. C. difficile is an intestinal bacterium and victims are typically the old and frail who are inflicted with other sickness.

With SAS software being used by more than 50 hospitals across the province, the business intelligence software company hopes to play a role in the fight against infection. SAS software has the capacity to understand the root cause of a C. difficile outbreak, according to Pat Finerty, vice-president of alliance and business development for SAS Canada.

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